To tax and to please

Another NSW state budget, they seem to roll around quicker than ever these days. All follow the same pattern – all budgets that is, not just NSW. The Leader/Treasurer, after massive pressure from International Monetary Fund, big business, some economists, radio shock jocks, choose a permitted figure for total budget expenditure in a year. Divide it up between your ministers. pass it down. Each minister has a lump sum. Divides it up between portfolio areas depending on who argues best and which electorates are marginal, pass it down. In each portfolio area departmental heads decide which institutions and programs have the most forceful public servants, pass it down. Heads of institutions and programs decide which underlings they like best, pass money down to their activities. Sort of a trickle down effect from top to bottom. By the time it gets to the bottom, the actual people who do the work, the operations that provide services, have a sum of money to work with that bears no necessary relation to the work they need to do.

Country towns in particular find themselves the victims of this age-old process, and so schools are shut down, hospitals have few services, bridges decay, railway lines are closed, as public servants try to pull up blankets to cover the chin while leaving the feet to freeze, or vice versa. Services move from country town to cities, people follow them out, jobs are lost. It’s a process 100 years old or more.

Could we try it back to front, upside down please – not trickle down but grass-roots up. The citizens of a town say what services they need to make the town livable and viable. They tell the local service providers, who work out what money will be needed to provide those services in health, education, transport. They pass the results up through the department, the ministry, and on to the Treasurer who adds them all up and passes to the Leader of the government. “So” he says, “this is the amount we need to run this state/country in a decent way for its citizens. Right, let’s see where we can find the money.” The two of them set about the task of making the sums add up (helped greatly by the fact that more people will remain in employment), working to the principle that those who can most afford it contribute the most. Also to the principle that big business, taking advantage of all the public services provided, and using up non-renewable resources (especially in the case of mining), will contribute the most.

At the end of the day the two columns reach the same total. The leader, knowing that the next year the process will be even easier as all regions of the state, all parts of the economy, begin to thrive equally, gives a little cheer and asks the Treasurer – “Do you want to tell the shock jocks or will I?” The Treasurer, remembering that they have increased the Shock Jock tax by introducing a cost per word, says “No, you do it”, and both of them have a beer to celebrate a job well done.

You may say I’m a dreamer

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Imagine how different the last four years would have been if the mainstream media had enthusiastically supported the idea of providing a massive increase in school infrastructure, and a big boost to insulating homes to reduce energy costs? If they had got behind the programs, explained their purposes, published anecdotes about happy customers. Imagine if they had explained the seriousness of the GFC in simple terms and the reasons for providing a stimulus. Imagine if they had ignored the phony “protests” of the mining billionaires and explained to the public the reasons for the mining tax and its benefits.

Imagine how different the last year would have been if the mainstream media had got behind the idea of putting a price on carbon. Explained to the public in a series of documentaries, morning shows, talkback radio, the reality of global warming, the measures beginning around the world, the urgency, the need for us to play a part, the benefits of doing so. Imagine if they had promoted the health benefits of plain packaging of cigarettes and the tax on alcopops. Imagine if they had gone into bat against the self-interest of the clubs, and explained the damage of problem gambling and examined the situation in WA. Imagine if they had seriously hammered the cattle industry on animal cruelty and the need to halt exports until resolved.

Imagine if they had been positive about the great breakthrough that having a female prime minister represented. Imagine if they had written positive stories about her rise from humble beginnings and her intelligence, hard work, charm, warmth. Her ability to work with colleagues and independents, the enormous raft of legislation that has been passed in spite of the opposition tactics against a minority government.

Imagine if they had been positive about how well the Labor-Green coalition was working, and compared it to Liberal-National coalitions of the past. Imagine if they had run positive stories about the independents Windsor and Oakeshott and Wilkie, praised their strength of character and independence of mind under great pressure.

Imagine if they had ignored most or all of the foolish publicity stunts by Tony Abbott. If they had seriously examined the policies being pushed by the opposition. Imagine if they had paid attention to the unprecedented damage that opposition tactics were doing to our parliamentary democracy. Imagine if they had turned the spotlight on Tony Abbott Action Man and found out what kind of a person he really is. And the rest of his front bench.

Wonder why they didn’t do any of those things.

Wonder why they did precisely the opposite.

Cum grano salis

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When you hear outrage over restriction to free speech don’t think that the outraged are concerned to maintain open and civilised discussion in which Renaissance values inform our politicks. And don’t think that they are lovingly concerned with the voiceless and little-voiced. Don’t think that they are happy to encourage and support the rights to speech of unions, greenies, the unemployed, migrants, women, Indigenous people. No, they are outraged that there might be some limit on the financially-lucrative socially-damaging politically-conservative-promoting vicious outpourings of the shock jocks.

When you hear outrage over the attempt to help problem gamblers don’t think that the outraged are determined to keep helping small sporting clubs and other community groups. And don’t think they have thought long and hard about libertarian philosophy and are determined that nothing should infringe personal liberty. Oh and don’t think the clubs are only concerned for the interests of the average members, the families, just wanting a good night out. No they are concerned with growing their enterprises bigger and bigger, turning them into multi-million dollar businesses from which CEOs do very nicely, thank you. And if their wealth and status owes a great deal to gambling addicts and their destroyed lives and families, well, what then? If they didn’t take their money someone else would.

When you hear outrage over business regulation don’t think that the managers and their associations are concerned that their businesses should be totally free so as to better serve the community in every possible way. Don’t think that these are people wanting nothing more than to do good for the community of which they, too, are a part, after all, and who are concerned that regulation might impede their public benefaction. Oh and don’t think these are people who have carefully considered the theory and practice of business regulation and its role in protecting the environment and worker’s rights, and have reached an intellectual assessment that the market achieves these aims much better. No, these are people whose sole concern is that regulation might slightly reduce shareholder profits and their own grotesquely inflated salaries and perks.

Three organisations, three causes, three guys, three suits, one voice, one big pork pie. You want salt on that pie?

Odds on

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There is a curious political narrative (I could write a book on curious political narratives) beloved not just of journalists but of political commentators, supposedly a much more serious breed of political observer. A discussion will be under way about, say, leadership questions, or the date of next election, or the winner of a bye-election, or the winner of a general election. Opinion polls will be perused, entrails of goats examined, ghosts of former prime ministers interviewed, oracles appealed to, pundits given the chance to endlessly punditify, with hindsight, on past political events.

At the end of all that, baffled and frustrated by the inability of commentators to do even such a simple thing as foretell the future, the compere/presenter/personality will speak in the tones of Socrates settling an argument among his students on the meaning of life. “What do the bookies say? They always know. What are the bookmaker’s odds on a [xxxx] win?”

Around the table, or on the comfortable lounge chairs, the faces of the assembled pundits will light up. “Ah yes” one will remark, with the air of someone discovering a great truth for the first time in history, “the bookies always know because they are responding to people putting real money on the outcome”. The others will nod wisely, one or two repeating the words “real money” with satisfaction.

It is always at this point that I am faced with a choice between running screaming from the room, hands over my ears to avoid hearing any more of this nonsense, or throwing a convenient house brick right through the tv screen. Which occasions another thought – if psychics and evangelists and faith healers and all the other charlatans can cure people through the tv by speaking into a microphone and looking at a camera 1000km from the target audience, then presumably I can have an effect on them by either cursing at or kicking the television set in my front room? Must try it – would be nice to see them cowering back on stage, or running around clutching their goolies in pain. Politicians and pundits too.

But I digress. The reason this “Let’s ask the bookies, real money” narrative is bullshit is that the people who are betting the “real money” are people who would bet on two flies crawling up a wall to use an old observation. The gamblers have no information you and I (or indeed the pundits) don’t have. They are making their bets on the stuff they read (perhaps) or watch on tv. They (and the bookies) have no special insights, no skills, no ability to predict the future, they are just betting money. Gambling. In the sense that their bets are equivalent to a poll, it is a very inaccurate poll, being an uncontrolled sample of a particular segment of the population.

But, I hear you say, bookies don’t go broke, so the odds that they post must represent something accurate. No. They make their money from racing and (more recently) football, cricket and other sporting events. They set the odds there initially on a record – number of previous wins, at a particular speed, on these tracks, against this opposition and so on. The gamblers (the smart ones anyway) are laying their bets on the same information. Favourites generally win, so do bookies.

No such information is available on political contests. So opinion polls represent a much more accurate assessment of likely outcomes, and political commentators a much more accurate assessment than bookies. Opinion polls because they are (or should be, it ain’t necessarily so) based on carefully taken and analysed samples. But political commentators? Well, you should always listen to them because, unlike your average punter, there is real money involved. The pundits, either directly or indirectly, and the media outlets and think tanks they represent, all have a big financial stake in ensuring that right wing governments are elected over and over again to infinity. That if, by some fluke of history, an even nominally left of centre government does happen to get elected they will be destroyed within one term or less. Big money involved for interested parties in lower taxes, access to markets, unions smashed, infrastructure availability, no regulation, business subsidies, no gambling or packaging restrictions, financial policies, under the right government (the Right government). So when the pundits speak they are indulging in self-fulfilling prophecy. By predicting a particular result they will help make it happen. A bit like a crooked bookmaker really, nobbling the favourite, or knowing people who do.

An honest bookmaker may or may not have the odds right on the next election. The pundits know that the fix is in. Listen to them. If you have backed a different horse might as well tear up your tickets now. Or fight back.

Toot Toot

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Well the Very Fast Train stirred on its tracks the other day and blew its whistle. Toot Toot, remember me? Well yes, and a jolly good idea you are too, but are we there yet? Not quite. There is no doubt that running a very fast train to link Brisbane-Sydney-Canberra-Melbourne makes a lot of sense in order to cut down air travel as we need to reduce greenhouse gas production wherever we can. But there are quite a few Buts that I would like to see settled (leaving aside the economic ones that I am sure teams of economists are working on).

First it must not be designed by using a ruler to join up the capital city dots and only avoiding places where the train might fall off a cliff or have to have a tunnel drilled through Kosciusko. We really don’t need a broad line of destruction smashing through forests, wetlands, native grasslands, cave systems, rocky outcrops, or indeed productive farms. This time before starting a major project a map needs to be put together by ecologists and agricultural scientists of areas that must not have a train track blasted through them. The VFT must make way for the environment, not the other way round.

My second criterion is to do with energy. I assume the idea is to have the whole track electrified, but I hope this isn’t going to be electricity derived from coal fired power stations, or the object of reducing greenhouse emissions would be severely dented. It must be possible to insist that the line be accompanied by solar and wind farms at intervals to provide the power directly to the line (and also to nearby towns).

Speaking of nearby towns, the relationship between the line and towns such as Goulburn, Yass, Wagga, Albury needs to be very carefully worked out. Obviously there need to be quick and efficient links for passengers. Not much point in getting from Sydney to nearly Yass in an hour if it then takes another hour or more to travel by occasional slow bus on winding roads to Yass itself.

Which brings me to transport of goods. If we are going to construct this massive project its purpose needs to be to substitute not only for personal travel by plane but for goods travelling long distances by roads. Hands up anyone who doesn’t think we need to get semi-trailers, B-doubles, off the highway? No hands? Now I am obviously not a train engineer, but it seems to me that the project needs to include, if it doesn’t already, provision for (presumably a bit slower) very fast goods trains. Just as with passenger movement, the movement of goods would need to be carefully coordinated and with the ability to speedily off-load into regional centres.

Not much to ask, and I’m sure my questions will be answered. Then it’s full steam ahead. Toot toot.

Hundred years war

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Annoyingly can’t find my copy to check (why is it that you can always find all the other books except the precise one you want, whichever that one is?) but there is a moment in “The Longest Day” which is relevant to the politics of the day. All day on June 6 1944 fighting has raged on the beaches of Normandy, and up the frighteningly steep cliffs. By the end of that long day a few of the allied troops have got past the last line of German coastal defences and have emerged on to the farm land at the top of the cliffs. They pause, exhausted, and then an officer calls them to move on out and into France. The battle in effect is over, and what comes now is the consolidation, the digging of defensive positions, the establishment of infrastructure to get the heavy equipment moving, planes landing, communications working.

Was reminded of this the other day when Obama, some three years late, gave a speech in which he suggested that since America’s budget problems were in no small part the result of the slashing of taxes for the rich begun by Reagan and continued by his disciples, it would be good if, pretty please, the rich could begin paying just a little bit more of their obscenely bloated wealth for the common good of the country. Just a little bit you understand, nowhere near what they had been happily paying in Reagan’s time.

The response was both outraged and depressingly predictable, Obama, said the mouthpieces of the super rich, was engaging in “class warfare” …

… Had to pause at that point, get my breath back, taken away by the astonishing audacity and hypocrisy of that response.

Right, back now.

The period since that June day has been marked by new battles in two phases. In the first phase the kind of world that the American, British and Canadian soldiers; and, on other battlefields, Australian and New Zealand soldiers, had fought for, was gradually brought into being. As I’ve written before, there were moves to better support the old and the poor, provide better health and education services for all, do something about the degrading environment, develop a society in which the disparities of wealth were not as great as they had been.

Think of it, if you can (since I am forced into a topsy turvy world here by my stubbornness in sticking with my original, poorly chosen, metaphor), as the German Army invading France, introducing good German customs into a country needing social reform. The German Army, in this Looking Class (sorry, Glass) War, being the good guys.

But now the Allies (bad guys remember) have landed on the beaches. Have brutally pushed back social, economic reforms in America, Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. Forced the progressive back up the cliffs pushed through the last defences, emerged triumphant on the cliff tops. Now for the digging in and consolidation of their gains.

So now we see nonsense like the “class warfare” tag, applied by the super rich 1% against the poorer 99% and accepted, unquestioningly, as a valid talking point by the media, their heavy equipment rolling across the countryside in support. We see court cases to destroy plain packaging in cigarettes, deposits on bottles; we see massive advertising campaigns to prevent action on coal seam gas, poker machines, mining resource taxes, carbon price; we see push back on progressive taxation, club opening hours, labelling of alcohol, national parks, workplace laws, public education and health, voting rights, and so on. The rich officer class and their willing foot soldiers are trying to make sure that they will hold this ground forever, make it impossible for progressives to fight back, lock in place the most regressive policies seen in 100 years.

It’s been a long day, but they seem to have won.

You give me fever

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When you have a fever your perception of the world gets distorted, your brain cells manipulated by virus and high temperature to see all kinds of things that are not there.

Chemotherapy is similar. After you have it you are left not knowing what changes to your body are the result of the illness, which are the result of the treatment, which are just ordinary everyday ailments that you normally would have ignored.

The media is having the effect of fever or vencristin on the body politic. Reading, seeing, hearing the news now I have no idea whether the events being described are real or fake, meaningful or meaningless, deserving of outrage or approbation. Video and photographic images may (or may not) be faked; descriptions of events true or false; reporters may (or more likely may not) be anywhere near the scene they are apparently describing; both witnesses and reporters may (or may not) have a vested interest (or an ideological purpose) in presenting a story in a certain way; politicians and soldiers and economists may be telling the truth or lying.

Bodies may or may not have been buried, shots may or may not have been fired, money may or may not have been stolen, people may or may not be terrorists or freedom fighters, heroes or villains. Conversely the Earth is warming, the poor are getting poorer, religion is damaging society, taxes are too low, science is essential to society, in spite of narratives that pretend these things are debatable.

The media were once meant to fling open the curtains of the sick room, let the light in, diagnose the symptoms of society, treat ills. Now they bring new and virulent diseases, raise temperatures, manipulate our brains, create illusions, prevent us perceiving the real world.

How do we cure that?

Do or die

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Yet another dumb, uneducated, religious fundamentalist, anti-science, neoconservative, gun-toting Texan has emerged from that backward state to eye off the White House where he could apply his talents on a wider stage. Rick Perry – shudder.

Not much point in dissecting this good old boy who is aiming to outdo Bachmann in the craziness stakes, the few remaining Americans capable of rational thought are doing that, but I want to pick up on one aspect of his political beliefs out of the many he shares with our own wild-eyed cowboy Tony Abbott. Perry wants to get rid of all regulation.

This of course is the fundamentalist faith of neocon libertarian true market believers, and Rick would be right at home, Right at home, with our very own bunch of market, market and nothing but the market true believers in the IPA. Perhaps they could offer him a visiting fellowship if that running for president thing doesn’t work out.

But the whole thing is as puzzling as the beliefs of Catholics or the southern evangelicals of Texas (evolution? Nah). I have as much difficulty with it as I do with the appearance of virgin mary on toasted cheese, or christ on a creeper (you don’t want to know). But I’ll give it a go.

Normal people believe that it is best to regulate airlines to stop planes crashing, pharmaceuticals to stop side effects, food preparation to stop food poisoning, factories to prevent rivers being poisoned, and guns to stop people being shot.

The Rick Perrys of this world (?) believe nothing of the sort. They start from the premise that regulation costs a business money, either directly or through opportunity cost, and that as a result really rich people will get richer a bit more slowly. Because they are either very rich themselves or best buddies with those who are, they think this is a BAD THING.

But because you can’t admit this is all just about greed they erect a philosophy around it. The idea seems to be that if there are two airlines and one takes advantage of lack of regulation to skimp on maintenance and training and the other doesn’t then the planes of the first one will crash, people won’t want to fly with them and they will go broke. Triumph of the market, no need for that silly old regulation, so twentieth century.

Except, and I think you will have spotted this for yourselves, for one tiny little flaw, nothing at all really. The theory relies on quite a few people who used airline A, well, dying, suffering in fact an opportunity cost of the potential life they could have had if strict regulation had stopped any crashes.

Oh, yes, that’s an extreme test of market force theory, but not an unfair one. Don’t regulate food preparation standards and wait for enough people to get sick, the word to get around, and a restaurant loses business, goes out of business if it doesn’t mend its ways, wash its hands. Don’t regulate speed limits on roads and, after a certain number of crashes the speeds will average out at a safe level (yes indeed suggested by an Australian libertarian).

Poorly built houses collapsing in storm, children’s toys with lead paint, untested drugs in pharmacies, sweat shops in every suburb, all media owned by Rupert Murdoch? Not to worry, when the public knows about these things the market will swing into action. Oh, sure, casualties along the way – injury, disease, death – price you pay for perfect freedom. What’s that? Well, yes, the freedom of the corporations, obviously, what are you a socialist?

But as if the idea that testing the market involves, if it must, injury and death, to maintain the purity of vision of the Libertarian gurus like Hayek and Paul (his son, almost unbelievably, named after Ayn Rand), was not bad enough, it also depends on another contradiction. If an unregulated media becomes owned by just one or two powerful owners, each with their own corporate interests in other segments of the economy, and each depending on advertising from the airlines, builders, drug companies, children’s toy makers and such like, then the chances of those media outlets exposing shonky or dangerous goods to the public so the “market” can decide is, oh, let me guess, approximately 0%. And just in case a rogue reporter does manage to survive somewhere in the bowels of a giant media conglomerate, the corporations, as we have seen recently, have all sorts of tricks up their sleeves in the form of astroturf organisations and legal injunctions and donations to political parties to prevent truth ever getting out.

Have I missed something? Yes indeed. The consequences of deregulation on individuals and their inability, in a real world outside the pages of Randian fantasy novels, to do anything about it, is obvious enough. Still, I suppose you could argue that an individual may, eventually, become informed about stuff by word of mouth and observation. But there is a whole other category of failure, bad enough even in a semi-regulated world, that has no remedy. Damage to the environment is always an externality – the tragedy of the commons is that everybody dumps rubbish in it and someone else has to pay to clean it up. At least where there are attempts at regulation, however feeble, companies might decide it is less costly, if penalties are high enough, to clean up their act than to poison water and air and soil. With no regulation there is no “consumer” to discourage environmentally damaging behaviour, and a company that did, altruistically, decide to put filters on chimneys or outlet pipes would incur costs not incurred by its competitors. Only a massive public campaign which managed to effectively aim at boycotting a company’s products might be effective, and it would be met by astroturf crazies, union thugs, legal jackals, and media disinformation campaigns.

But the faith of the true believers like Perry and Abbott is unshaken by any analysis – just as in religion the less evidence the more faith, and no evidence at all requires the greatest faith and the surest path to paradise. Those calling for theocracies in what were once western democracies are doing so from the safety of hard-won secular societies. In the same way those calling for an end to all regulation are doing so from an economy and society which still, in spite of the best efforts of the neocons, is based at least nominally on the idea that some regulation is needed to save capitalism from itself. In both cases I have the feeling that the religious and economic fundamentalists should be careful what they wish for – they wouldn’t, in the real world, like what they got.

London Bridge is falling down

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A few years ago the governing body of an Australian city closed down a major hospital and the action met with strong public protest. In response they declared that the hospital building was to be demolished and that as a public service they would turn the demolition into a public spectacle to which all the people were invited. Thousands of people turned up on the day to watch in a carnival atmosphere, but some kind of mistake was made, the controlled implosion turned into an explosion which showered the crowd, hundreds of metres away, with lumps of metal and concrete, and a poor teenage girl, out for the day with her family, was struck and killed in an awful tragedy.

Her death is what people remember, rightly, about this awful day, but the other thing I want to remember here is the astonishing (to me) fact that “thousands of people turned up on the day to watch”. Now I can’t imagine wanting to go to watch a fine old building being demolished, but I am faced with the fact that large numbers of my fellow citizens did want to. That people I passed in the street, apparently ordinary everyday people, could well have been among the people who were attracted to go and see this destruction.

As if to confirm this, an Australian tv network has recently been advertising a stunning line up of new reality shows which involve blowing up buildings, cutting down big old trees, car and plane crashes, dangerous roads, and more blowing up of buildings with lots of explosives. They have, I presume, done their homework and decided that there is indeed a big audience for destruction.

An audience they have helped to create, hell, totally created? Dunno, but it seems to me that in the past (both my own, and the historical past) people were more interested in building up than knocking down, took more pride in creation than destruction. Can remember indeed considerable protest about the demolition derbies that the state governments of the 60s and 70s unleashed on Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.

Things have changed, and now while I still can’t imagine taking pleasure in the demolition of a building, in London, right there on my TV, are young people taking pleasure in carrying out the destruction themselves – burning fine old buildings (including homes), kicking in windows, trashing shop contents, setting fire to cars and buses, preventing fire brigades from putting out fires. A great deal of what was going on in London this week seemed to be just the desire to destroy, and to take pleasure purely in the act of destruction. We need to ask where that desire and pleasure has come from.

But we need to ask something else. The media commentary has focused largely on the question “What kind of people do this?” The answer seems to me ordinary people you might pass in the street on another occasion. A more important question is “What kind of country has England become so that people want to do this?”

A few weeks ago we might have asked the question “What kind of country has Greece become that people are destructively rioting in the streets?” But the answer was obvious – a country in which the rich were going to stay rich while tens of thousands of ordinary workers lost their jobs and many others lost their community support services and in which every public asset and function was going to be privatised, sold off to giant corporations. Every crisis, as Naomi Klein noted some time ago, is used by the ruling corporations to enhance their control and wealth at the expense of the public in country after country.

Britain is no exception – the advent of Cameron’s conservative government led immediately to the slashing of all kinds of public programs in the name of fiscal prudence. I don’t think these young nihilist thugs are in any real sense the ideological descendants of the ragged trousered philanthropists, or the Jarrow marchers, or the coal miners of the Thatcher era, but they are reacting, unknowingly to the same kind of social and economic forces. The slash-and-burn drown-society-in-a-bath-tub trickle-down-economics of Margaret Thatcher has left succeeding generations of young Britons undereducated untrained and often unemployable, while at the same time reducing the public services that would support them in a safety net. Leaving them to watch from the economic sidelines as the gap in wealth between rich and poor, the main (perhaps only) performance indicator of the thatcherites, grew wider and wider.

Same factors in play in America of course, Obama providing no obstacle to the destruction of the middle and working classes, in fact enabling the obscene American wealth gap to grow and acquiescing in the coming slashing of social services while keeping the taxes of the wealthy low to non-existent. In Australia Tony Abbott’s thatcherites in waiting are ready to complete the job John Howard started.

I guess the next question is not why are there riots in London, but when will the riots come in New York and Sydney? Same television programs, same economic programs.

[Excellent piece from Van Badham with much more detail on the class war I sketch above - we must have been writing simultaneously in London and here!]

Top chef in the baker’s dozen

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In the last 70 years Australia has had 13 prime ministers (excluding the temporary Mr Forde, Mr McEwan) just as both the US and UK have had 13 leaders each. You would have to say by any objective measure, and ignoring sniping by people like me, we have been very lucky and very well served by our baker’s dozen. We have avoided having any real dunces (unlike the US with Ford, Reagan, Bush and Bush) or crooks (Nixon). Our 13 also exceed the average quality of 13 British PMs (who avoid the US highs and lows) over that period.

I have, in the past, tried to separate out tops and bottoms. But this would be invidious among a continuous spectrum, and besides I find my opinion alters over time (Fraser up and Keating down for example). So let’s try to assess them over a range of qualities (not including IQ which I reckon averages high and pretty even).

OK, how might we judge the best of these thirteen? Lack of ideology; flexibility of mind; ability to relate to people; difficulty of political circumstances faced; ability to work with colleagues; concern for ordinary people; concern for minorities and the powerless; awareness of the big picture; ability to embody some aspect of the country; hard working; willingness to take expert advice; someone I can imagine having an intelligent conversation with; someone I could imagine having a beer with; someone who can achieve outcomes; someone who can stand up to vested interests.

What have I missed?

Even if I have missed something big, I think applying those filters quickly begins to whittle down the big thirteen. McMahon, Holt, Rudd, Howard, Keating all go out in the first round. Then it gets hard (and depends greatly on how you weight different abilities against each other, and how you assess unpalatable party policies against prime ministerial abilities). Probably Fraser, Whitlam, Gorton and Chifley are reluctantly eliminated in the second round.

Which leaves just four in the grand final of Australia’s Got Prime Ministerial Talent – Curtin, Menzies, Hawke and Gillard. Now any of those would be a Winner you could argue for, give a standing ovation to, and I reckon you, my fellow judges, might easily disagree with me.

But, drumroll, my Winner is, on the basis of consistent performance overall – Julia Gillard. Yes, I know, I was surprised too. I fed all the data back into my PM “Difference Engine” (the very latest from Mr Babbage), and waited while the cogs whirred and spun, differences calculated, levers pushed for carries. Yes, it was still Julia by a nose. Do the calculations yourself (and get Ms Lovelace to double check, be analytical) I am sure you will agree.

Now I know it is only a short stay in the Lodge so far and they have been tumultuous times faced with a Tea Party inspired opposition, but, like good red wine, she can only get better.

So, best PM in 70 years, but there is another unique feature that distinguishes Ms Gillard from all her predecessors. No, not the size of her ear lobes. Give in? She has been subject to more personal abuse, vilification, hatred, death threats, than all of her predecessors put together. Wonder if those two unique features might be related, the Opposition determined to de-legitimise her before the public can grow accustomed to her abilities. Surely not.

If they succeed, and I reckon the chances are they will, then the baker’s dozen will end with her, a unique sequence come to an end. If Tony Abbott seizes the top job, then we will have not only taken on Tea Party politics from America, but the roller coaster leadership sequence in which some excellent, or at least above average, Presidents, can be succeeded by real dickheads, people who struggle to read a children’s book about pet goats. Mind you the US is about to plunge again too, and Abbott and Bachmann should get on very well.

Anyway, over to you. Have I gilded the lily, overegged the pudding? Even if I have, something to ponder on while Tony tries to work out whether a tonne of CO2 or a bust of Mr Monckton would fall faster from the roof of the House of Lords.